China's total LPG imports are projected to have sustained at a low level of 2.35-2.45 million tonnes in February, primarily due to the low PDH plants' operating rates as a result of the negative profit. But it looks set to increase in March as new PDH plants will drive China's appetite for LPG, according to OilChem's survey.
Separately, China's refrigerated LPG imports in February stood at 1.97 million tonnes, down 25.65% MoM while rising 12.31% YoY, data from OilChem showed. The decrease was attributed to the suspension of PDH plants due to meagre profits, coupled with the Chinese Spring Festival holiday and the rainy and snowy weather across most parts of China.
China's Refrigerated LPG Imports (Mt)
Region |
Feb 2024 |
Jan 2024 |
MoM |
Feb 2023 |
YoY |
|
East China |
Fujian |
0.236 |
0.177 |
33.33% |
0.146 |
61.64% |
Except Fujian |
0.755 |
1.106 |
-31.78% |
0.617 |
22.29% |
|
South China |
0.563 |
0.558 |
0.84% |
0.48 |
25.61% |
|
Shandong |
0.326 |
0.765 |
-57.39% |
0.455 |
-28.35% |
|
North China |
0.094 |
0.046 |
104.35% |
0.045 |
108.89% |
|
Northeast China |
0.000 |
0.048 |
-100.00% |
0.046 |
-100.00% |
|
Total |
2.973 |
2.654 |
-25.65% |
1.757 |
12.31% |
Source: OilChem
With the plants returning from maintenance, China's PDH plants operated at an average run rate of 64.65% by March 7, up 1.77 percentage points from prior month, data showed.
Moreover, Qixiang Tengda, Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran, Liaoning Kingfa, and Binhua New Material are expected to resume their PDH plants over March-April, and two new PDH plants are said to start operations by the end of the first quarter, namely Ningbo Kingfa's Phase II 600,000 t/y and Zhonghai Fine Chemical's Phase II 750,000 t/y plants.
China PDH Maintenance in Q1 2024
Owner |
Plant |
Capacity (Kt/y) |
Start Time |
End Time |
Puyang Far East Technology |
PDH |
150 |
2023/5/12 |
Pending |
Zhejiang Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical |
PDH |
450 |
H2 Sep 2023 |
End Feb 2024 |
Zhejiang Huahong New Materials |
PDH Phase II |
450 |
2023/9/12 |
Pending |
Shandong Ruize Chemical Technology |
PDH |
300 |
2023/8/18 |
Pending |
Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical |
PDH |
600 |
H2 Nov 2023 |
Mar 2024 |
Shandong Binhua New Material |
PDH |
600 |
2023/8/29 |
Apr 2024 |
Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical |
PDH |
600 |
2023/12/20 |
Mar 2024 |
Dongguan Juzhengyuan Technology |
PDH Phase I |
600 |
2023/11/25 |
Feb 2024 |
Zhejiang Petroleum and Chemical |
PDH |
600 |
2023/11/21 |
Feb 2024 |
Liaoning Kingfa Science & Technology |
PDH |
600 |
2024/1/7 |
Mar 2024 |
Shandong Tianhong Chemical |
PDH |
450 |
2024/1/7 |
Mar 2024 |
Source: OilChem
Looking above, if these PDH plants start operations as scheduled, it is expected that China's PDH operating rates will reach over 70%, which will lift LPG imports to 2.8-3 million tonnes in March.
Written by Sunny Fang, fss@oilchem.net
Edited by Aggie Hu, huchenying@mysteel.com